It has been fascinating to watch both groups in their quests to spot tornadic supercells. While storm chasers claim to have scientific skill and predictive prowess, they seem to be more interested in stalking the scientists with Vortex2 than in using their own judgment in positioning. Whererever Vortex2 has deployed, a gaggle of storm chasers has been sure to follow – clogging the roads and byways in Tornado Alley.

One example occurred on Tuesday. Vortex2 was in the vicinity of Wichita, KS, in what the Storm Prediction Center identified as a 15% tornado risk area. Like flies attracted to meat, at least fifty amateur storm chasers converged on Vortex2′s location. Admittedly, everyone could see the east-west fine line on radar showing a boundary for potential storm initiation. But what was interesting was that while Vortex2 and the attendant chase community waited in frustration for the boundary to ignite, there were real tornado warnings posted right across the border in Missouri – with hardly any chasers paying attention to them.

I suppose it is okay for chase beginners to cling to Vortex2 in hopes of observing a tornado. Surely, with the cache of brain power involved in the project, they should be pretty good at finding twisters even in this “down year” for Plains tornadoes. But if I was a chaser, I would want to demonstrate my knowledge and skill by breaking away from the pack – to predict, identify, and chase a tornado that nobody else is on. That is the difference between a pro and a lookie loo.

For a meteorologist spectating from afar, it was a curious situation. A cold front had passed through the area several hours before, and only some post-frontal thunderstorms were anticipated. A glance at the Rapid Update Cycle atmospheric profile showed the air in the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere was dry, the opposite of what is required to feed supercell-induced tornadoes. The wind field was weak, and the available potential energy was elevated above high cloud bases. The SPC’s mesoscale discussion promised only “a few damaging wind gusts especially if short bowling line segments can organize.” No watch – tornado or thunderstorm – would be issued this day.

Yet the chasers had seized upon the long-shot and raced to the panhandle. The Vortex2 tornado project was already in the area with an armada of equipment in search of a rare, 2009 High Plains tornado. When a garden-variety thunderstorm popped up south of Alliance, Nebraska, chasers swirled around its flanks hoping for the action that would never materialize. It was fascinating to watch the GPS locations of more than a dozen chasers converge on the center of radar reflectivity – on a storm that did not even warrant a severe thunderstorm warning.

The drought of tornadic weather has been unlucky for the world class scientists and researchers who have set aside five weeks of their lives hoping to study tornadoes in Vortex2. One would expect good odds for severe weather in tornado alley in late May. So far this year it has just been wishful thinking.

After Wednesday’s bust, the outlook for the rest of the month is no better. Vortex2 announced it is grounding its media chase vehicle due to poor expectations for severe weather.

Thursday the Storm Prediction Center’s Convective Outlooks were released with what is probably an unprecedented severe-free late May. The SPC forecast contained no high, moderate, or even slight risk areas for the entire nation going out eight days. That means no areas of organized severe weather are anticipated for the final week of May.

With that outlook, it appears most tornado chasers will have to find something else to chase for the Memorial Day Weekend and beyond.