Storm chasers flock to the area, meaning the dangers from the storm are not your only concern.

A higher volume of traffic on the roads, persons pulled off the side of the road, and in some cases, amateurs not paying attention to the road all become a major concern.

Verno’s concerns are shared by many in the weather community. There just seem to be too many people out chasing. Here is a timelapse of chaser movement between 5 pm and 8 pm CDT on May 10 as tornadoes moved through a high risk area in eastern Oklahoma.

The yellow and red polygons are the severe thunderstorm and tornado warning polygons. The chasers are the other moving parts, congregating around the areas where the storms are expected to be. While there are dozens of chasers visible in the display, it it only shows chasers equipped with GPS devices. It does not include the armada of vehicles with the Vortex2 tornado project, which deployed near Oklahoma City. Nor does it include amateur, untrained eyes out on the roads looking for tornadoes.

I am not in any position to tell people what they should and should not do if they want to see storms. It is that part of nature’s majesty that attracted lots (if not most) of the top meteorologists into the field. But with so much traffic clogging the roadways near tornadoes, there is just no way everyone will have a clear escape route if a tornado heads toward a crowded group of amateur and professional onlookers. It’s not a question of “if” there will be storm chasers hurt, but when it will happen.

For a meteorologist spectating from afar, it was a curious situation. A cold front had passed through the area several hours before, and only some post-frontal thunderstorms were anticipated. A glance at the Rapid Update Cycle atmospheric profile showed the air in the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere was dry, the opposite of what is required to feed supercell-induced tornadoes. The wind field was weak, and the available potential energy was elevated above high cloud bases. The SPC’s mesoscale discussion promised only “a few damaging wind gusts especially if short bowling line segments can organize.” No watch – tornado or thunderstorm – would be issued this day.

Yet the chasers had seized upon the long-shot and raced to the panhandle. The Vortex2 tornado project was already in the area with an armada of equipment in search of a rare, 2009 High Plains tornado. When a garden-variety thunderstorm popped up south of Alliance, Nebraska, chasers swirled around its flanks hoping for the action that would never materialize. It was fascinating to watch the GPS locations of more than a dozen chasers converge on the center of radar reflectivity – on a storm that did not even warrant a severe thunderstorm warning.

The drought of tornadic weather has been unlucky for the world class scientists and researchers who have set aside five weeks of their lives hoping to study tornadoes in Vortex2. One would expect good odds for severe weather in tornado alley in late May. So far this year it has just been wishful thinking.

After Wednesday’s bust, the outlook for the rest of the month is no better. Vortex2 announced it is grounding its media chase vehicle due to poor expectations for severe weather.

Thursday the Storm Prediction Center’s Convective Outlooks were released with what is probably an unprecedented severe-free late May. The SPC forecast contained no high, moderate, or even slight risk areas for the entire nation going out eight days. That means no areas of organized severe weather are anticipated for the final week of May.

With that outlook, it appears most tornado chasers will have to find something else to chase for the Memorial Day Weekend and beyond.