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In an afternoon blog on May 10, Wayne Verno of The Weather Channel discussed the problems with chasing storms on days when the Storm Prediction Center advertises a “high risk” of severe thunderstorms. First on his list was chaser convergence:

Storm chasers flock to the area, meaning the dangers from the storm are not your only concern.

A higher volume of traffic on the roads, persons pulled off the side of the road, and in some cases, amateurs not paying attention to the road all become a major concern.

Verno’s concerns are shared by many in the weather community. There just seem to be too many people out chasing. Here is a timelapse of chaser movement between 5 pm and 8 pm CDT on May 10 as tornadoes moved through a high risk area in eastern Oklahoma.

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The yellow and red polygons are the severe thunderstorm and tornado warning polygons. The chasers are the other moving parts, congregating around the areas where the storms are expected to be. While there are dozens of chasers visible in the display, it it only shows chasers equipped with GPS devices. It does not include the armada of vehicles with the Vortex2 tornado project, which deployed near Oklahoma City. Nor does it include amateur, untrained eyes out on the roads looking for tornadoes.

I am not in any position to tell people what they should and should not do if they want to see storms. It is that part of nature’s majesty that attracted lots (if not most) of the top meteorologists into the field. But with so much traffic clogging the roadways near tornadoes, there is just no way everyone will have a clear escape route if a tornado heads toward a crowded group of amateur and professional onlookers. It’s not a question of “if” there will be storm chasers hurt, but when it will happen.

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Jay Science, Weather chasers, The Weather Channel, tornadoes

Vortex2, the biggest tornado research project in history (as The Weather Channel reminds us every five minutes), is an armada on wheels that has been roaming the Central and Northern Plains in search of tornadoes this Spring. The amateur storm chase community is an armada on wheels that has been roaming the Central and Northern Plains in search of tornadoes this Spring.

It has been fascinating to watch both groups in their quests to spot tornadic supercells. While storm chasers claim to have scientific skill and predictive prowess, they seem to be more interested in stalking the scientists with Vortex2 than in using their own judgment in positioning. Whererever Vortex2 has deployed, a gaggle of storm chasers has been sure to follow – clogging the roads and byways in Tornado Alley.

One example occurred on Tuesday. Vortex2 was in the vicinity of Wichita, KS, in what the Storm Prediction Center identified as a 15% tornado risk area. Like flies attracted to meat, at least fifty amateur storm chasers converged on Vortex2’s location. Admittedly, everyone could see the east-west fine line on radar showing a boundary for potential storm initiation. But what was interesting was that while Vortex2 and the attendant chase community waited in frustration for the boundary to ignite, there were real tornado warnings posted right across the border in Missouri – with hardly any chasers paying attention to them.

I suppose it is okay for chase beginners to cling to Vortex2 in hopes of observing a tornado. Surely, with the cache of brain power involved in the project, they should be pretty good at finding twisters even in this “down year” for Plains tornadoes. But if I was a chaser, I would want to demonstrate my knowledge and skill by breaking away from the pack – to predict, identify, and chase a tornado that nobody else is on. That is the difference between a pro and a lookie loo.

Jay Weather chasers, tornado, Vortex2