Chaser convergence: Disaster waiting to happen
In an afternoon blog on May 10, Wayne Verno of The Weather Channel discussed the problems with chasing storms on days when the Storm Prediction Center advertises a “high risk” of severe thunderstorms. First on his list was chaser convergence:
Storm chasers flock to the area, meaning the dangers from the storm are not your only concern.
A higher volume of traffic on the roads, persons pulled off the side of the road, and in some cases, amateurs not paying attention to the road all become a major concern.
Verno’s concerns are shared by many in the weather community. There just seem to be too many people out chasing. Here is a timelapse of chaser movement between 5 pm and 8 pm CDT on May 10 as tornadoes moved through a high risk area in eastern Oklahoma.
The yellow and red polygons are the severe thunderstorm and tornado warning polygons. The chasers are the other moving parts, congregating around the areas where the storms are expected to be. While there are dozens of chasers visible in the display, it it only shows chasers equipped with GPS devices. It does not include the armada of vehicles with the Vortex2 tornado project, which deployed near Oklahoma City. Nor does it include amateur, untrained eyes out on the roads looking for tornadoes.
I am not in any position to tell people what they should and should not do if they want to see storms. It is that part of nature’s majesty that attracted lots (if not most) of the top meteorologists into the field. But with so much traffic clogging the roadways near tornadoes, there is just no way everyone will have a clear escape route if a tornado heads toward a crowded group of amateur and professional onlookers. It’s not a question of “if” there will be storm chasers hurt, but when it will happen.
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It was a fascinating process, as one might imagine, being on the inside of what will be a global debate in the next few months. For instance, we heard from the man who will be one of China’s negotiators in Copenhagen, where a Kyoto-like treaty will be hammered out. He suggested that the world should adhere to Kyoto, which the United States opposed, in part, because it gave China and other “developing countries” something of a pass from carbon emission regulations. He also insisted China (which is now the world’s biggest C02 producer) is entitled to a break because of its sizable population, and low, $2400 annual income. But – and I thought there was a bit of news in this statement – he also said he had made eight trips to the US in recent months to talk.
I displayed a graph revealing those terms were tweeted over 17,000 times in the previous month.
