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Chaser convergence: Disaster waiting to happen

May 11th, 2010

In an afternoon blog on May 10, Wayne Verno of The Weather Channel discussed the problems with chasing storms on days when the Storm Prediction Center advertises a “high risk” of severe thunderstorms. First on his list was chaser convergence:

Storm chasers flock to the area, meaning the dangers from the storm are not your only concern.

A higher volume of traffic on the roads, persons pulled off the side of the road, and in some cases, amateurs not paying attention to the road all become a major concern.

Verno’s concerns are shared by many in the weather community. There just seem to be too many people out chasing. Here is a timelapse of chaser movement between 5 pm and 8 pm CDT on May 10 as tornadoes moved through a high risk area in eastern Oklahoma.

The yellow and red polygons are the severe thunderstorm and tornado warning polygons. The chasers are the other moving parts, congregating around the areas where the storms are expected to be. While there are dozens of chasers visible in the display, it it only shows chasers equipped with GPS devices. It does not include the armada of vehicles with the Vortex2 tornado project, which deployed near Oklahoma City. Nor does it include amateur, untrained eyes out on the roads looking for tornadoes.

I am not in any position to tell people what they should and should not do if they want to see storms. It is that part of nature’s majesty that attracted lots (if not most) of the top meteorologists into the field. But with so much traffic clogging the roadways near tornadoes, there is just no way everyone will have a clear escape route if a tornado heads toward a crowded group of amateur and professional onlookers. It’s not a question of “if” there will be storm chasers hurt, but when it will happen.

Jay Science, Weather , ,

AMS in ATL

January 21st, 2010

The 14 thousand member American Meteorological Society held its 2010 meeting in Atlanta. The AMS is a professional society dedicated to the atmospheric sciences and related fields.

Jay News, Science

European Meteorological Society conference

October 1st, 2009

The European Meteorological Society conference is taking place in Toulouse, in southern France. The EMS gave Danny Roup from Israel its Broadcaster of the Year award, and he told a remarkable story.

In Israel (like most of Europe), the nighttime weather forecasts are videotaped during the daytime for playback on the air later. In the case of Israel, Danny says he has actually taped two identical weathercasts. In one, he is smiling and in a happy mood. In the other, he acts more somber, with no joy in his voice. That night, the control room airs whichever is most appropriate – the sad one if there has been tragic news occurring at the time, or the happy weathercast if there is not. He says that quite often, they end up airing the sad version because there is frequently bad news to report in Israel.

Here is a look at what it is like at the EMS conference.

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Jay Science, Weather

WCC-3: World Climate Consensus

September 3rd, 2009

So how do things work at a big international conference? Mainly lots and lots of writing, re-writing, and finalizing of written statements that can be agreed upon by all. Based upon the World Climate Conference-3 in Geneva, this is my impression of how it happens.

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Jay News, Science, Weather , , ,

Price paid for climate change views

August 14th, 2009

Television meteorologists who make school visits inevitably get the same question from youngsters: “How much money do you make?” When speaking to adult groups there is another, equally uncomfortable question that comes up: “What do you think about global warming?”

We do our best to answer, as we are members of the scientific community and expected to give guidance on such matters. But it is hard to find the upside of giving an answer that, according to statistics, puts any television meteorologist (on either side of the issue) at odds with approximately 50% of their viewers.

Satterfield-SpannTake the case of two excellent TV meteorologists who work in adjoining markets in Alabama: Dan Satterfield from Huntsville, and James Spann from Birmingham. Both are among the very best at what they do. Each is considered the dean of weathercasters in their markets; both are very smart guys and fine gentlemen. They both study climate science and talk with experts in the field. But they have come to an honest, carefully considered difference of opinion. Dan Satterfield believes in manmade global warming. James Spann does not.

James has received the greater attention. He was interviewed on national television for criticizing former Weather Channel climatologist Dr. Heidi Cullen, after she suggested that weathercasters who deny manmade global warming should not be certified by the American Meteorological Society. (The AMS has issued public statements about climate change.) Dan has long written about climate issues, and two years ago proved his sincere interest by paying his own way to the Arctic to report on the effects of warmer climate there.

Both James and Dan have received substantial ridicule and abuse for taking their thoughtful positions. James was blamed for creating a “cyber storm.” Dan has been accused of joining “with other recent frustrated ‘believers’ in man-made climate fears.” An emailer said Dan seemed to “prefer the practices of the inquisition.” 

Most of the angry rhetoric has come from outside of Alabama, from critics who don’t know either man or how seriously they do their jobs. Just as with national opinion polls, the feedback about climate change tends to break along party lines. In advising fellow broadcasters who might be tempted to take a stand on climate change, James Spann cautions:

I would warn anybody that dives into this issue (they) will pay the price with a pile of hate coming from one political party or another.

Jay Science, Television industry, Weather

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